At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. B
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A female financial whiz plans the perfect bank heist in this “high-tech, high-stakes” thriller from the #1 international-bestselling author of The Eight (The Washington Post). Verity Banks is the one of the most powerful women in finance, but she still reports to a man. Her boss not only refuses to implement her security plan to safeguard customers’ deposits, he also sabotages her shot at becoming director of security at the Federal Reserve. Outraged, Verity decides to take revenge by hitting her boss where it will hurt the most: right in his company’s balance sheet. She is about to begin her assault when she hears from the last person she ever expected to see again, Zoltan Tor. A brilliant computer scientist who taught Verity everything she knows, Zoltan will help her if she agrees to an outlandish wager: Which of them can steal $1 billion, invest it to make $30 million in three months, and return it before anyone notices? Verity can use a computer; Zoltan will do it the old-fashioned way. To beat Zoltan at his own game, Verity will risk her fortune, her professional reputation—and her life. This ebook features an illustrated biography of Katherine Neville including rare images from her life and travels.
Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly “blind” (using only his plane’s instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of both the 8th, 12th and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.
Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.
Mark W. Clark was a major figure in World War II. He was prominent as one of the top American commanders. Together with Dwight D. Eisenhower, Omar N. Bradley, and George S. Patton, Jr., Clark was widely regarded as being responsible for victory on the European side of the conflict. - from the introduction One of the great World War II memoirs by a legendary American general in charge of operations in North Africa and Italy. General Mark W. Clark recounts his wartime exploits and tells the story of the battles in Tunisia and Italy with verve and attention to key detail. An unparalleled account by a great military leader.
CLANDESTINE COVER-UP Accountant Victoria Hayes never would have thought discovering fraud in her office would put her life at risk. When her house catches fire, destroying the evidence she's collected, it seems the mastermind will do anything to keep Victoria from disclosing what she knows. Unsure what to do, she turns to her charming supervisor for help. But without much evidence, Jeff Tucker is reluctant to believe Victoria…until they both become suspects. Now they must work together to prove their innocence…and stay alive. With an unpredictable—and deadly—criminal after them, each step could be their last.
Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs. Killed along with his crew in a launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, Grissom also lost his chance to walk on the moon and return to describe his journey. Others went in his place. The stories of the moon walkers are familiar. Less appreciated are Grissom's contributions. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannot be understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing that legacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a Cold Warrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was to beat the Soviet Union into space and eventually to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASA engineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold delivers a comprehensive and corrective account of Grissom's life that places his career in the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to our understanding of that tumultuous and ultimately triumphant period in American history.
Whoever said opposites attract was right, of course...but no one ever said what they attract. Jilted by the latest of her father's choices of 'real men,' Cisney Baldwin rashly accepts an invitation to spend Thanksgiving weekend with a sympathetic colleague and his family. Nick LeCrone is a man too much her opposite to interest her and too mild-mannered to make her overbearing father's 'list.' Now, Cisney fears Nick wants to take advantage of her vulnerable state over the holiday. Boy, is she wrong.Nick wants little to do with Cisney. She drives him crazy with all her sticky notes and quirks. He extended an invitation because he felt sorry for her. Now he's stuck, and to make matters worse, his family thinks she's his perfect match. He'll do what he can to keep his distance, but there's just one problem'he's starting to believe Cisney's magnetism is stronger than he can resist.
Prepare for edge-of-your-seat suspense in this Thriller Short. Originally published in THRILLER 2 (2009), edited by #1 New York Times bestselling author Clive Cussler. In this Thriller Short, bestselling author Sean Chercover displays his knowledge of the sea, diving and illegal trafficking. Two men with shady backgrounds come together on a fishing boat in the middle of the Caribbean. One of them is Tom Bailey, a mysterious people smuggler, The other—operating under the alias Diego—is willing to pay Bailey generously to carry out a job that Diego will not discuss. Thankfully for Diego, Bailey wants to retire from his illegal ways and go straight, and this job will nudge him closer to his goal. But things don’t go as planned for either man. Risks must be taken. Sometimes they pay off. Other times…not so much. Don’t miss any of these exciting stories from Thriller 2: The Weapon by Jeffery Deaver Remaking by Blake Crouch Iced by Harry Hunsicker Justice Served by Mariah Stewart The Circle by David Hewson Roomful of Witnesses by R.L. Stine The House on Pine Terrace by Phillip Margolin The Desert Here and the Desert Far Away by Marcus Sakey On the Run by Carla Neggers Can You Help Me Out Here? by Robert Ferrigno Crossed Double by Joe Hartlaub The Lamented by Lawrence Light Vintage Death by Lisa Jackson Suspension of Disbelief by Tim Maleeny A Calculated Risk by Sean Chercover The Fifth World by Javier Sierra Ghost Writer by Gary Braver Through a Veil Darkly by Kathleen Antrim Bedtime for Mr. Li by David J. Montgomery Protecting the Innocent by Simon Wood Watch Out for My Girl by Joan Johnston Killing Time by Jon Land Boldt’s Broken Angel by Ridley Pearson
In the aftermath of World War II and the Holocaust, the Truman White House led the effort to establish the state of Israel. But, was it inevitable that the U.S. would endorse the concept of a Jewish state? Was U.S. policy entirely pro-Jewish? To what extent did the State Department influence Presidents Roosevelt and Truman in regard to Palestine? How aware were the two presidents of the probable consequences of their decisions about the Middle East? A Calculated Risk explores these questions and more. It examines the intricate international diplomacy that helped pave the way for the creation of the Jewish state and evaluates the conflicting pressures brought to bear on the U.S. with respect to the Palestine question, and specifically the recognition of Israel, from 1942-1948. Impartial, well researched, and highly readable, it tells the complete story of the balancing act that changed the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
- Author : Major Daniel W. Krueger
- Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
- Release Date : 2015-11-06
- Genre : History
- Pages : 52
- ISBN : 9781786250636
In September 1943 allied armies of the United States and Great Britain landed on the European mainland in its “soft underbelly” taking another step toward the defeat of Nazi Germany. Expecting to be in Rome by the end of that year, the Allies instead found themselves embroiled in a prolonged struggle of static warfare reminiscent of the western front of 1915-16. In the end the allied armies suffered 312,000 casualties in a campaign whose purpose was not clearly decided. This monograph examines the Allies campaign in the Mediterranean in 1943-1944 in order to answer the question of whether the Allies could have “won” and, if so, how. More specifically, this study looks at the utility of military theory for explaining cause and effect, and for providing a basis for operational insight and assessment of risk. This particular historical case study is significant in that the challenges of difficult terrain, coalition command, multinational forces, limited resources, and bad weather faced by the operational commanders of this campaign are factors that may weigh heavily for operational commanders in future conflicts. Conclusions reached in this study are threefold. First, the operational commanders involved did not have a true appreciation of the operational risks taken when major operations were designed and executed in January 1944. Second, the operational and strategic commanders may have chosen a different course of action if these risks had been more fully appreciated. Third, classical theory, as represented by the writings of Clausewitz, Jomini, and even Liddell Hart, does have utility in explaining cause and effect and may well have provided the commanders concerned in this case clearer insight at the operational level of war.
The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?
Calculated Risk - Janie Crouch Sheriff's deputy Tanner Dempsey is just doing his job when he stops a shoplifter trying to steal diapers and formula. But something about this frightened young woman makes him want to do more. Bree Daniels is grateful for Tanner's help, but there's so much she can never tell him. The truth is dangerous to everyone she lets into her life - and could be lethal to Tanner. Credible Alibi - Tyler Anne Snell Just as innkeeper Madeline Nash is wrongly accused of a crime, former lover Julian Mercer unexpectedly shows up and lies to give her an alibi. As Julian's deceit draws him into the dangers and mysteries of Madi's troubled past, their romance rekindles. Nothing can keep him from protecting the woman he never forgot - not even bullets.
You cannot win in chess without taking risks. Winning requires courage and psychology. No matter how deep you calculate, there always comes a point where you have to deal with uncertainties and take a decision. What is carefully calculated risk, and what is bluff? And why were famous players like Lasker and Tal so successful with both? They realized that chess is not a science. Emotions also play a role behind the board. If you can guess what your opponent is feeling and thinking, you are ahead of him. When your main aim is to derail your opponent’s calculation by weaving a web of deception, you engage in the highest form of risk: bluff. Renowned chess coach Vladimir Tukmakov has played against, and worked with, quite a few chess greats. Many of them told him frankly about their thoughts and feelings during crucial games. These stories became the foundation of a collection of more than 100 practical ways that masters and grandmasters have used to push beyond the limits of calculation and take a deliberate risk. It works – even at the highest level! Tukmakov shows how to trick your opponent into believing your bluff. After studying this book, with its many fascinating and often funny examples, you will think twice before wasting an opportunity to do what even the greatest players do: bluff your way to victory!
- Author : Dariush Rafinejad
- Publisher : J. Ross Publishing
- Release Date : 2007-06-15
- Genre : Business & Economics
- Pages : 432
- ISBN : 1932159703
This title uses a holistic approach to examine the diverse issues that managers face to channel resources in the right direction for commercial success. It details the commercialization of innovation and new products in fast-paced, high-tech markets and how to match tecnological advances to new market opportunities.